Will Cuban-American Barbara Lagoa be the Supreme Court nominee?

Tomorrow, Trump plans to announce his Supreme Court nominee to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died last week.

Near the top of the short list is Barbara Lagoa, a federal judge whose parents fled Cuba when Castro came to power in the late 1950s.

A Miami native, Lagoa was appointed by the Trump administration to serve on the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals just last year. Her earlier career includes many years on Florida's Third District Court of Appeals (appointed by then-Governor Jeb Bush) and a brief stint on the Supreme Court of Florida. She was the first Hispanic woman and first Cuban American woman to serve on the court.

In her early career, Lagoa went head to head with the U.S. government to keep Elian Gonzalez in the U.S. Gonzalez was five years old when he fled Cuba with his mother. His mother drowned and he was found by fisherman off the coast of Fort Lauderdale. Although her team lost the case and Gonzalez was sent back to Cuba, her opposition to the Castro regime resonates with "hardliner" Cuban-Americans who tend to vote Republican.

There are several things that make Lagoa a good pick in the eyes of the Trump administration:

  • Lagoa is politically aligned with conservatives on her textualist interpretation of the Constitution. She is a member of the conservative Federalist Society.

  • Nominating Lagoa would send a strong signal to Florida voters that Trump has their back. A critical battleground state, Trump needs every vote he can get in Florida this November.

  • The nomination would send an even stronger signal of support to Cuban-Americans, a powerful voting group in Florida.

If nominated, Lagoa will face quite a bit of trouble with her record on voting rights. This summer, Lagoa joined the 6-4 majority to uphold a law that keeps former felons from voting unless they have paid their court fees in full. Opponents to the decision have characterized the law as an illegal poll tax.

This decision may be an important factor in the November election. The Washington Post reported that it would keep many of the 85,000 felons in the swing state from voting. In 2016, Trump won the state by about 113,000 votes.

Other reading

Trump announces new sanctions on Cuba. More hotels, rum and cigars are on the list. (The Hill)

Trump registered his trademark in Cuba in 2008 to build hotels, casinos and golf courses (Tampa Bay Times)

Cuba’s Economy Was Hurting. The Pandemic Brought a Food Crisis. (NYT)

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