Struggling to Connect
We used to think the internet was a panacea for the world’s anti-democratic woes. It was a nearly universal truth: the free, open internet would let ordinary citizens dismantle authoritarianism and spread democracy. During the Arab Spring of the early 2010s, western outlets touted Facebook and Twitter as the harbingers of free speech and human rights.
Facebook? And Twitter? It’s hard to recall our former optimism. Looking back, these social media platforms don’t appear to have done their job. The number of democratizing governments peaked in 1992 and autocratic regimes are on the rise.
Yet in the White House, hope in the internet’s power to democratize persists. Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden have all invoked the power of the internet as a democratizing force in Cuba.
In a 2007 speech at the State Department, President Bush encouraged European embassies in Cuba to open up “to pro-democracy leaders and invite them to different events. They can use their lobbies of the embassies to give Cubans access to the Internet and to books and to magazines.”
He also proposed a trade with the Cuban government:
Here's an interesting idea to help the Cuban people: the United States government is prepared to license non-governmental organizations and faith-based groups to provide computers and Internet access to Cuban people—if Cuba's rulers will end their restrictions on Internet access for all the people.
When Obama made his historic visit to Cuba in 2016, the internet had already begun to be available in pockets of the island. In a speech at Havana’s Gran Teatro, Obama spoke to Cuban and American leaders on the power of the internet:
The Internet should be available across the island, so that Cubans can connect to the wider world and to one of the greatest engines of growth in human history.
In 2017, Trump set up a Cuba Internet Task Force to “examine the technological challenges and opportunities for expanding Internet access and freedom of expression in Cuba.”
Biden has made more than one indication that he plans to take action on the internet in Cuba. After the July 11, 2021 protests in Cuba, Biden said about the Cuban government: “They've cut off access to the internet. We're considering whether we have the technological ability to reinstate that access.”
Given the general alignment on this topic across the aisle and over time, it was a great surprise to see the following headline last week:
Rejected on national security concerns.
A consortium of companies under the name ARCOS-1 USA had proposed to connect Cuba to its existing network in the Caribbean, but it was rejected on national security concerns. Here is ARCOs-1’s current subsea network—essentially a circle around Cuba:
Giving Cuba the runaround
Source: submarinenetworks.com
ARCOS-1 USA intended to connect Cojimar, Cuba (near Havana) to the cable segment running from Miami, Florida to Cancún, Mexico.
Much of my time working on Google’s Cuba team was spent on this exact issue: exploring whether we could connect a landing station in Miami to a landing station in Havana via subsea cable. We faced headwinds from the Cuban government, but never our own.
So why is Biden’s White House asking the Department of Justice to reject this new deal?
Their concerns about national security may be legitimate, or it may just be the old political calculus; Cuba, in almost any context, is a radioactive issue for those with an election ahead of them.
Per usual, Cuba has found a workaround; just yesterday Cuba and French telecom Orange announced a new cable deal that would connect France’s Caribbean island Martinique to Cuba. Although details are few, I imagine the capacity will be significantly lower than what was proposed by ARCOS-1 USA. That means slower internet for Cubans—but likely better than what they have now.
The Cuban government harbors a love-hate relationship with the internet: out of fear of a political uprising, the Cuban government knows it must deliver internet to its citizens. But the internet itself can also aid a popular uprising, as seen in the July 11th protests of last year.
Thus, the rollout of any internet solution in Cuba is bound to have its stumbles. In the future, satellite internet may resolve many of these issues. Smuggling Starlink equipment into Cuba would be unadvisable (see Alan Gross), but I’m optimistic that at some point satellite internet access will not require any home equipment — you’ll only have to turn on your mobile phone.
Regardless of how fast the internet expands in Cuba, the question remains: does it have the power to bring about democracy? Under the current White House administration, it will take longer to find out.