Caught in the ideological crossfire
When it came to engaging with Cuba, there was something special about President Obama. Some combination of the man and his times resulted in the perfect opportunity for a thaw in relations.
But the times have changed, and Biden may have to keep things on ice.
In 2015, over half of Cuban Americans in Florida supported normalizing relations with Cuba. Obama had barely enough political support to exchange prisoners, unlock travel, re-open the embassy, and foster commercial partnerships.
A new poll from consulting firm Bendixen & Amandi International shows that nearly two-thirds of the same demographic are now against reengagement with Cuba.
Some hoped that Biden would pick up where Obama left off. It's clear that this time, it's different.
It would be easy to pin Biden's change of fortune on Trump. He fired up the anti-Castro rhetoric whenever it was useful. He made promises to hardline Cuban American voters and partnered with their representatives in Congress. His tirades against Cuban socialism still echo in Republican messaging. He may have effectively swayed public opinion against engagement with Cuba.
And Florida, a crucial battleground state, tilted his way.
Perhaps Trump's anti-socialism message worked, in part, because the pro-socialism message was gaining ground. In recent years, we witnessed the rise of the two most prominent socialists in American political history: Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. One of them almost nabbed the Democratic nomination and the other still has a long political career ahead of her. As Bernie and AOC leaned into socialist messaging, Trump pointed to the failings of Cuba and Venezuela. It was an effective tactic.
According to the data, Trump's message had a warm audience. A 2019 Gallup poll found that most Americans view socialism unfavorably.
Never mind that diplomatic engagement with Cuba has little to do with adopting Cuba's style of governance. These should be viewed as two separate issues. In fact, the U.S. maintains good relations with many countries that have rejected democracy.
Yet, amid the ideological mudslinging, it seems the two issues have been conflated, and the U.S.-Cuba relationship is collateral damage.
The way I see it, Biden has two paths before him. He could fit his presidential priorities into the limits of public opinion. Or he could try to shape public opinion to align with his presidential priorities.
The former option is politically expedient, but the latter may be fruitful as well. Since the Biden administration has said very little on Cuba so far, I think testing the waters is a good next step. Biden may find he has the Obama magic after all.