A New Year for Cuba
You all have been a big part of my 2020. I can’t thank you enough for reading (or even just skimming!) my humble, little blog and newsletter. I wrote my first 12 posts for The Cuba Reader this year, and in response, I received your kind notes and thoughtful feedback. Thank you. The U.S.-Cuba relationship is fascinating, complicated and sometimes exhausting. And I care deeply about its gradual improvement. It has been a joy to unpack this topic together. Let’s keep it going.
As we step into a new year, there are many unknowns for Cuba. Various political, economic and social factors will continue to shape the island nation and its role in the world. It's no secret that Cuba is going through an unusually hard time right now. The Cuban government's next steps, coupled with Washington's actions could change everything.
Here are the main things you'll want to keep an eye on:
An outgoing administration. In an effort to appease anti-Castro voters in South Florida, the Trump administration has rolled back much of Obama's work in Cuba. Several small but impactful decisions have made it more difficult for foreigners to visit and spend money in Cuba. Trump also increased pressure on the Cuban government in various ways. Perhaps most alarming, he made it difficult for family members in the U.S. to send remittances back to their Cuban relatives, via Western Union and other wire transfer services.
I should note that not all of this was done purely for Florida voters. Some of these decisions were connected to the crisis produced by a corrupt Venezuelan government, a regime that Cuba supports through various means.
However, in Trump's final days in office, Secretary of State Pompeo is reportedly contemplating a proposal to place Cuba back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. The move was developed as a thank-you to Trump's supporters in Florida and it is still being reviewed. Cuba was formerly on the list, but removed by Obama in 2015. Only North Korea, Syria and Iran currently have this designation. NYT has the full story.
An incoming administration. America's foreign policy in some ways decides the fate of Cuba. In other ways, Cuba itself is responsible for its successes and failures. But there is little doubt that Cuba will breathe easier under the incoming Biden administration. Biden his counterpart President Díaz-Canel have both indicated that relations will warm. The question right now is how quickly changes will happen, and how much of an impact they will have. On the Cuban side, there may be some hesitancy to move too quickly, given the whiplash they experienced between the Obama and Trump administrations. On the U.S. side, Biden will avoid fully embracing Cuba – he will do what we can to help alleviate Cuba's economic situation, but not until he's talked a lot about Cuba's need to respect human rights.
The Biden administration will also have to figure out how to prevent future incidents of Havana Syndrome, and how to move past the whole ordeal in a diplomatic setting. Oddly, I think this will be easier than it sounds for Biden and Díaz-Canel to smooth things over. The U.S. and Cuba have experienced stranger things in their long, tortured relationship.
A new economic strategy. Cuba is in dire straits economically. Many Cubans and observers are comparing the current economic downturn to the special period of the 1990s, after the Soviet Union collapsed and Cuba's subsidies from the communist nation evaporated. COVID-19, a reduction in tourism, Trump's policies, Venezuela's crisis – these have all contributed to Cuba's troubles.
Although still ideologically wed to socialism, President Miguel Díaz-Canel is more practical than his predecessors Fidel and Raul when it comes to economics. Several market liberalization policies are being considered, and one is being implemented tomorrow. Cuba's two-currency system, which was set up in the 1990s to keep Cubans from dumping for pesos for USD, will be abolished. The program kept imports cheap, but Cubans poor. The Economist has the full story.
I think 2021 has a lot in store for Cuba. I look forward to watching it unfold together.