An opposition group to the Cuban government, called Archipiélago, has spent the past few weeks planning a pro-democracy protest for today, Monday, November 15th, 2021.

The government has condemned the march and has denied necessary permits for the group to assemble in public. The protestors have stated that they plan to gather even without having secured permits. Yesterday, however, Cuban police took early measures to stop them.

Archipiélago is the same group that marched against the government earlier this year on July 11th, a date that is now a byword for the struggle to expand individual freedoms and effect constitutional change.

The date of today's march is likely not coincidental — it's also when the island re-opens to international visitors.

Frustrated, the Cuban government has cast both the July 11th protest and today's march as an American-capitalist plot. Many protestors from the summer remain in jail or are otherwise unaccounted for. The Archipiélago group has indicated that it is acting on its own accord and without international funding.

I find it interesting that the protestors don't match up with the historical anti-Communist crowd; the organizers are young people from the creative class who appear to come from the political left more than the political right. This precise demographic is one of those that Raúl Castro and President Diaz-Canel hoped would carry the banner of the Revolution into the future.

Yesterday, on the eve of the protests, Cuban police and pro-government supporters surrounded the home of a 39-year-old playwright named Yunior García Aguilera, who is seen as the leader of the opposition group. Other figures of the Archipiélago group have also reported being blocked from leaving their homes. A Washington post columnist in Cuba was at home taking out his trash when he was approached by police and placed under house arrest.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken responded on Sunday by condemning Cuba's "intimidation tactics" and calling for "respect for human rights." Meanwhile, Cuban-Americans in Florida spent Sunday rallying publicly in support of the "15N" march.

The world will be watching today to see if the Cuban government responds to protestors with restraint or brutality. Flouting human rights will further strain Cuba's relations with the international community, especially with its neighbor to the north. It would also be bad PR for foreigners contemplating a visit, which should be the government's primary concern given the dire need for tourism spending. I am anxious to see how it goes.