Joe Biden will be leading the executive branch in January, and the U.S.-Cuba relationship is set to change (again).

No other foreign ally or enemy has undergone perhaps quite as much geopolitical whiplash as Cuba has in the past five years. Decades of gridlock gave way to the bold openness of the Obama administration, followed by the cold rhetoric of Trump—with a few Cold-War-style political dramas along the way.

The Biden-Harris victory is welcome news for our weather-beaten Caribbean neighbor. On Sunday Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel tweeted, "We recognize that through its presidential elections, the people of the United States have opted for a new path. We believe in the possibility of a bilateral relationship that is both constructive and respectful of each other’s differences."

Diaz-Canel offered only a restrained congratulations, but he is certainly feeling good about a Biden win. Cuba's foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez was less subtle about his enthusiasm, retweeting the President and adding “#BidenHarris2020.”

The Cuban government appears ready to start a new chapter with its American counterpart. Is America ready, too?

A new era for U.S.-Cuba relations

Biden has made it clear that he plans to break from Trump's strategy of maximum pressure on the Cuban government. In a visit to Miami in October, the President-elect declared, “The administration’s approach is not working. Cuba is no closer to democracy than it was four years ago. In fact, there are more political prisoners. The secret police are as brutal as ever. And Russia is once again a major presence in Cuba and Havana.”

In a March interview in American Quarterly, Biden stated, "Americans—and especially Cuban-Americans—can be our best ambassadors for freedom in Cuba. Therefore, as president, I will promptly reverse the failed Trump policies that have inflicted harm on the Cuban people and done nothing to advance democracy and human rights."

More recently, a top Biden foreign policy adviser told Reuters on condition of anonymity that Biden plans to “reverse the decisions that are separating families, limitations on family travel and remittances.”

What would change?

The Obama administration made it easier or Americans to travel to and spend money in Cuba. Many commercial and government partnerships sprung up, with many others in the pipeline.

The Trump administration tightened things back up. Americans are now banned from most types of lodging, most types of activities, and bringing back the most popular types of souvenirs (cigars and rum). Family members in the U.S. face heavy restrictions on sending money to their relatives in Cuba.

It appears Biden is ready to do away with much of the political micromanagement, while keeping the broader embargo in place. These small changes will be marketed as helping the Cuban people—not the government. Biden has made it clear that he disapproves of the Cuban government's record on human rights.

To support these changes, we're likely to see a re-staffing of the U.S. embassy in Havana. We'll see broader diplomatic engagement and a more friendly immigration policy for Cubans.

We may also see a number of U.S. commercial entities—ranging from Google to Marriott—renew their interest in doing business in Cuba.

Tourism, the lifeblood of the Cuban economy, is likely to see an uptick if both countries can get the pandemic under control.

Cuba is locked down due to COVID-19 (in fact, its main airport is still closed), so I suspect a bilateral relationship will be slow in coming. Biden also has a long list of priorities, and Cuba will fall below the pandemic, climate change and race matters.

But many changes to Cuba policy can be made easily with the stroke of a pen. Such unilateral gestures of goodwill from the U.S. will help set the stage for later negotiations.

These changes will not be popular with everyone in the U.S., especially the hardline Cuban-American community in South Florida. Biden has stated many times, however, that he believes that most Americans will stand with him on a new Cuba policy.