This past weekend I met a man in his early thirties who had recently moved from Havana, Cuba to Houston, Texas. He didn't say exactly how he was able to establish himself in his new country, but he made it clear that he wasn't interested in going back to his old one. He told me that his mother and sister still lived in Cuba, and he was hoping to get them to Texas, too.

I commented on the economic situation. "Some people are saying it's as bad as the nineties right now."

"It's much worse," he countered.

I probed, "How do you think things will change now that Trump is out of office?"

"The politics never change. It's always the same."

His attitude reflects the current national mood; many Cubans have lost hope that the food and energy shortages, which define daily life on the island, will get any better.

If more Cubans had the resources or audacity to emigrate, it seems they would.

The Cuban economy is in a deep recession, despite Raul Castro's decade-long effort at reform. Critics say the reforms did not go far enough, leaving private enterprise severely hamstrung. Castro instead blames Cuba's economic failures on the U.S. embargo. Neither side, however, foresaw the COVID-19 pandemic and global shutdown of travel, which has flattened an economy almost entirely dependent on tourism.

On Friday, according to plans several years in the making, Raul Castro stepped down from his role as head of the government. He is leaving his successor with a tattered and worn Cuba.

His departure from the seat of power marks an end to 62 years of Castro rule. In preparation for this moment, Raul groomed a younger generation to take over. He handpicked party loyalist Miguel Diaz-Canel to be president in 2018. Last week, he handed over full power, naming Diaz-Canel secretary general of the Communist Party. There is only one political party in Cuba.

Raul Castro leaves a fascinating legacy. Although he served in the shadow of his brother Fidel, he wielded wide influence. The two Castros didn't always agree. For example, in the 2010s, Raul sold his capitalistic reforms as positive and necessary steps for Cuba, while his older brother Fidel, by then retired, portrayed them as "concessions to the enemy." When the Revolution first began, Raul encouraged his brother to embrace Communism, while Fidel kept his options open. Then and now, on the biggest issues, Raul has led the way.

As he steps back from governing, Raul is doing all he can to keep the country's faith alive in the Revolution, a cultural doctrine that centers on opposing U.S. interference in domestic affairs. In a speech that marked the passing of the torch, Raul portrayed the incoming party leadership as "full of passion and anti-imperialist spirit."

But as Cuba begins a new chapter in its history, one must ask: what is Cuba without a Castro at its helm? What is a revolution without its leader?

These are uncertain times. All at once, Cuba is facing new leadership, an economic recession, and a new White House administration. President Diaz-Canel is entrusted to carry the banner of socialism, but Cubans are hoping for changes that will stimulate economic growth. Raul is still behind the scenes, advising Diaz-Canel on major issues. There is a deep divide between the plans of the government and the wishes of the people, and it's growing wider.

As stated by Professor Bill LeoGrande on my YouTube channel last week, the economy is at the center of Cuba's ills. The quickest way to alleviate the economic situation, of course, would be to engage commercially with the U.S., the largest trading partner in the region. But trade follows diplomacy, and it's still unclear whether Diaz-Canel and Biden are willing to engage.